The Food Away from Home Association (IFMA) has launched its forecast for the meals service trade, projecting a 1.1% inflation-adjusted enhance in purchases of provides and providers in 2026. This development is predicted to happen regardless of ongoing financial uncertainties and a predicted slowdown in menu inflation.
In accordance with IFMA, meals prices are anticipated to rise by 3% in 2026, a lower from the three.9% enhance projected for 2025. This easing in pricing comes amid considerations concerning the potential affect of tariffs on imported meals and different provides for the trade.
The affiliation has additionally reaffirmed its February projection of a 0.9% inflation-adjusted enhance in purchases for 2025. This projection covers a variety of meals service operations, together with eating places, comfort shops, faculty eating rooms, worker cafeterias, and college lunchrooms.
The forecast signifies that whereas client demand is predicted to rise reasonably, many of the elevated gross sales for operators will doubtless end result from worth will increase reasonably than a major enhance in patron site visitors. The forecast means that client site visitors will proceed to say no, although not as sharply as within the present yr.
The IFMA’s 2026 forecast consists of a number of key findings. Purchases from food-away-from-home suppliers are anticipated to whole $37.4 billion, translating to an estimated $1.1 trillion in whole gross sales to customers. Eating places are projected to seize the biggest share, with gross sales forecasted at $783.9 billion. Inside the restaurant sector, fast-casual institutions are anticipated to steer in gross sales development, with an anticipated enhance of two%.
The forecast additionally highlights the continued presence of “ghost” or digital eating places, that are supply and takeout-only ideas. Gross sales for these institutions are projected to exceed $2 billion in 2026.
The information for the 2026 forecast and up to date 2025 projections had been compiled by Datassential, a analysis agency specializing in meals service. Extra insights had been supplied by members of IFMA’s Foodservice Management Councils, which include operator members addressing real-world points and alternatives.
Members of the affiliation can entry detailed projections, together with knowledge on the Retail Foodservice class, by the IFMA Scope portal. This platform presents an interactive view of section and market demographic info to help enterprise planning.
