Regardless of a projection for cautious optimism amid modest gross sales development, restaurant operators might want to reveal resilience and innovation to handle the restrained spending of their visitors whereas assembly their heightened calls for on the similar time, the Nationwide Restaurant Affiliation’s 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry stories.
The business will once more face quite a few challenges—because it did final yr—together with greater working bills, akin to elevated meals and labor prices, evolving immigration insurance policies and shifts in client habits, says Dr. Chad Moutray, the Affiliation’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Analysis.
“Success in 2026 will hinge on the power of operators to get the mathematics proper in a still-challenging financial atmosphere,” Moutray stated. “Following a yr when 60% of operators reported decreased site visitors, there’s cautious optimism for enchancment. On the similar time, nonetheless, they’ll have to stay laser centered on controlling prices whereas additionally delivering worth and offering satisfying menu innovation that resonates with customers.”
Whereas the financial pressures will persist, the report additionally forecasts extra positivity, fueled by the U.S. client’s need to partake within the flavors, comfort, and social experiences that eating places present.
Annual business gross sales in 2026 will attain $1.55T, though actual (inflation-adjusted) gross sales development is predicted to stay comparatively modest at 1.3%, and the whole variety of workers will develop by 100K to achieve 15.8M.
Addressing the difficult enterprise atmosphere
The report focuses on three essential areas affecting the present enterprise atmosphere.
- Working situations will stay troublesome: Uneven site visitors and rising prices will proceed to pressure income and profitability, and people elevated bills will reinforce the necessity for operational effectivity and creativity.
- Profitability might be difficult: In accordance with the information, 42% of operators stated their eating places weren’t worthwhile in 2025, and that that they had restricted skill to lift menu costs. Consequently, margin pressures will stay a priority in 2026.
- Resilience and creativity might be important: Know-how is turning into an important software for managing operations prices, whereas delivering the worth and experiences prospects need and the analysis exhibits that prospects now anticipate know-how might be part of their restaurant experiences.
The report additionally examines how low- and middle-income customers are coping with lingering inflation and the cooling labor market that’s tightening their family budgets. At the moment, higher-income households and customers with investments are those driving a lot of the spending of disposable earnings. This may problem operators to draw a broad vary of consumers by delivering significant worth that resonates throughout totally different price range ranges.
Because the job market impacts spending energy, the Affiliation will proceed to look at for adjustments in hiring. However the potential for elevated financial development later this yr may bolster confidence and assist further spending.
With regards to how customers spend at eating places in 2026, the bulk (61%) say they nonetheless contemplate eating places important to their existence and can proceed prioritizing eating out. Nevertheless, in addition they be aware that worth choices, like reductions and every day specials, and loyalty applications will affect their restaurant decisions, each on- and off-premises.
A few of the most vital data surrounds the business’s acceptance and deployment of workforce improvement and technological enhancements. In accordance with the report, this consists of:
- Making a future-ready workforce
- Funding in coaching and instruments that equip workers for evolving roles
- The power to mix hospitality with technology-driven effectivity.
Operators additionally say they intend to domesticate the following era of expertise by guaranteeing they develop a talented, adaptable workforce that delivers distinctive service.
With regards to rising their use of know-how, 60% of operators say their eating places are within the know-how mainstream, whereas practically 3 in 10 suppose they’re lagging, and just one in 10 contemplate themselves to be on the forefront of technological innovation in comparison with their friends.
Topping the checklist of areas impacted by know-how are on-premises ordering and cost, advertising and marketing/promoting, buyer suggestions, and back-office features.
Many operators additionally say they’re planning to make the most of breakthrough efficiencies, akin to digital ordering, automation, and knowledge analytics, to streamline their operations, cut back prices, improve the shopper’s expertise, and drive long-term competitiveness.
Download the full 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry report. It’s free for members and $349 for nonmembers.
