The post-pandemic glory days of hovering ADR are previously, and the temper at ALIS 2026 was certainly one of pragmatic survival. Because the trade gathered in Los Angeles for the Americas Lodging Funding Summit (ALIS), STR’s Vice President of Analytics Isaac Collazo, Kalibri Labs’ Chief Govt Officer Cindy Estis Inexperienced, and Phocuswright’s Senior Vice President of Content material Mitra Sorrells delivered a transparent message: the lodge trade has moved past a regular cyclical shift, coming into a brand new actuality the place a “trifurcated” economic system and the speedy ascent of AI are essentially rewriting the standard playbook for motels.
The session, moderated by Christoph McLaughlin, senior vp of portfolio technique at Ashford Inc., addressed the “basic math downside” at the moment conserving homeowners awake at evening.
The 2026 Forecast: A “Math Downside” for Homeowners
The industry outlook is characterised by a “trifurcation”—progress on the luxurious finish, declines on the decrease finish, and flatness within the center. Collazo offered a conservative forecast:
- RevPAR Development: Projected at a meager 0.6 p.c.
- Inflation vs. ADR: Whereas ADR is anticipated to develop by only one p.c, inflation is projected at 2.4 p.c.
- The World Cup Issue: 2026 efficiency is closely reliant on the FIFA World Cup. With out the ten host markets, trade RevPAR would possible be damaging.
Estis Inexperienced supplied a year-over-year RevPAR adjustment of -1.5 p.c to +1 p.c, noting that whereas company and group enterprise stay secure, discounted classes (OTA, loyalty, authorities) are dragging down the common. If compelled to “make the choose” at this time, she mentioned she would land at -1 p.c.
“Demand is rising zero to three p.c for the following few years, and bills rising 5 to 10%… that’s a basic math downside,” she mentioned. In an surroundings the place working prices and labor are ballooning far quicker than income, she argued that “top-line” progress is now not the metric of success; the main focus should shift fully to web income and operational effectivity via automation.
Collazo particularly highlighted that the 2026 forecast “strikes from purple to black” in comparison with 2025, however it’s “not getting nice.” He famous luxurious properties are projected to develop 3.2 p.c, whereas limited-service, midscale, and economic system segments are all anticipated to be damaging, starting from -1 p.c to -2 p.c.
Provide and Demand: The Rise of Options
A major takeaway was the “decoupling” of lodge demand from GDP. Whereas the economic system grew in 2025, motels misplaced RevPAR. The panel recognized main culprits:
- Brief-Time period Leases (STRs): In 2025, whole lodging demand grew by 6 million nights, however hotel-specific demand was down. All web beneficial properties have been captured by short-term leases.
- The Cruise Trade: Cruises are more and more siphoning off conventional lodge friends.
- Provide Developments: New development stays beneath the 20-year common on account of financing prices, however conversions have hit a 10-year excessive.
“That is in all probability essentially the most troublesome forecasting surroundings of my 30-something years on this trade… day-after-day one thing new occurs that we by no means considered,” Collazo mentioned. His admission of the “chaos and alter” within the market underscores why 2026 is such a pivotal 12 months. Between the trifurcation of chain scales and the sudden decoupling of lodge demand from GDP, conventional historic fashions are now not dependable.
The AI Revolution: Past the Hype
The panel famous that AI has moved from a “future idea” to a present operational necessity.
- Search Habits: Conventional search (primarily Google) is shedding floor. Knowledge reveals a pointy drop in conventional search beginning in early 2025, with vacationers shifting to GenAI instruments like ChatGPT and Gemini for journey planning.
- Visibility is the New search engine optimization: Sorrells warned that motels are now not simply competing for Google rankings however for “AI suggestions.” If a lodge’s particular facilities (like a high-end gymnasium) aren’t surfaced in a pure language question, that property successfully doesn’t exist to the fashionable traveler.
- Operational ROI: AI’s fast worth lies in “back-of-house” efficiencies—right-sizing staffing, automating check-ins, and optimizing advertising and marketing spend to fight rising labor prices.
Whereas the income outlook is muted, Estis Inexperienced sees a “enormous alternative” in utilizing AI to resolve the labor disaster. She advocated for a complete rethink of property staffing, suggesting that AI fashions can now present whether or not a property could be higher off buying and selling a conventional company gross sales function for elevated digital media spend or automated housekeeping schedules.
Shifting Client Loyalty
The panel additionally debated the worth of name affiliation. Phocuswright analysis signifies that Gen Z and Millennials prioritize novelty over loyalty. Additionally of notice: Solely 38 p.c of youthful vacationers belong to loyalty packages, in comparison with over 50percent of Boomers. Sorrells’ information additionally reveals that 47 p.c of Gen Z vacationers explicitly state they’d select a brand new journey expertise over a model they’ve used earlier than. Estis Inexperienced countered by noting that loyalty packages act as a “larger flooring” for model.com websites, offering 60 p.c contribution and conserving direct bookings stronger than OTAs, making them a “demand benefit” slightly than “demand insurance coverage.”
On the Rising Energy of AI Platforms
Sorrells highlighted a seismic shift in how vacationers plan journeys. With conventional search engine utilization dropping sharply in favor of GenAI instruments, a lodge’s survival relies on whether or not its particular facilities—like specialised gymnasium gear or boutique providers—are “crawlable” and digestible for AI suggestion engines.
“The implication is evident: you’re not simply competing on visibility on Google,” Sorrells famous. “You might be competing to be really useful by AI.”
It’s a brand new day, so to talk, and Estis Inexperienced’s blunt evaluation of the present financial local weather summed it up properly: “The skies are falling—I don’t imagine that. However actually, we have to change our habits and the way we’re analyzing all the pieces.”
2026 Projection / Pattern
- RevPAR: 0.6 p.c (Closely World Cup dependent)
- ADR vs. Inflation: 1.0 p.c ADR vs. 2.4 p.c inflation (Stress on margins)
- Provide: Low new builds; excessive conversion exercise. Provide 19 p.c of pipeline below development; excessive conversion focus.
- Client: Wealthier, frequent vacationers transferring to AI instruments
- Principal Risk: Brief-term leases and margin erosion by way of labor/inflation
- Search Habits: 40 p.c of U.S. vacationers now use GenAI for planning
- Demand: Shift towards rich vacationers and Small-to-medium enterprise
